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WeChat official account "space debris center" January 19th, January 18, 2022. The early warning calculation of the space debris monitoring and application center of the National Space Administration found that China's Tsinghua Science Satellite (No. 46026) and Russia's cosmic 1408 debris (No. 49863) will have a very dangerous rendezvous at about 10:49:29 on January 18, 2022, Beijing time, with a collision probability of 3.71 × 10-4, the nearest distance is 14.5m, the relative speed is 5.27km/s, and the intersection angle is 40.52 °. The fragment No. 49863 is the disintegration fragment produced by the Russian anti satellite test on November 15, 2021 < p > < / P > < p > the prediction analysis and orbit change analysis of continuously updated orbit data from January 11, 2022 to January 18, 2022 show that the intersection time and intersection angle of the two objects are basically stable. As the orbital element epoch approaches the intersection time, although the collision probability and intersection distance fluctuate greatly, the collision probability exceeds 10-4 in the near future, and the intersection distance continues to decrease, The trend of dangerous intersection is significant. The change of intersection distance is shown in the figure below < p > Tsinghua science satellite was launched into orbit on August 6, 2020, and now operates in a low earth orbit with a perigee of 478 km, a apogee of 499 km and an inclination of 97.42 °. It is a gravity and atmospheric science satellite, which undertakes the two major tasks of scientific exploration and technical verification. The scientific goal of the satellite is to obtain centimeter level precise orbit determination data, realize high-precision atmospheric density and gravity field measurement, and establish China's independent space vehicle dynamic environment model. The satellite shape is shown in the figure below. Because the satellite shape adopts spherical design, it is also vividly called "star q-sat". This event is by no means accidental. On November 15 last year, Russia's anti satellite test produced an estimated 1600 pieces of disintegration debris with a size greater than 10 cm, most of which were distributed in the orbital altitude range of 400 to 1100 km. These debris may pose a collision risk to spacecraft operating in the region < p > the orbital altitude of Tsinghua scientific satellite belongs to the area with dense space debris. In recent years, the number of space debris in this area has increased sharply due to the increase of collision and disintegration events, and the collision risk encountered by the satellite has increased. The debris center will continue to pay attention to the rendezvous and release the collision risk of China's satellite assets in time

2023-03-22 10:04:49