Share with friends and circles of friends via wechat scanning QR code < / P > < p > China Youth Daily client on November 27. Recently, the official website of the China CDC published a weekly newspaper, which predicted that if China adopted the United States, the United Kingdom The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic prevention strategy in western countries such as Israel, Spain and France (hereinafter referred to as "reference countries"), and the number of new infections in China will probably reach hundreds of thousands of people every day. About 10 thousand cases will have serious symptoms, which will create a devastating impact on China's medical system and cause great disaster in China. "5 p> < p > among them, if the epidemic prevention strategy of the United States is adopted, the number of new cases in China will exceed 630000 every day; If the British epidemic prevention strategy is adopted, the number of new cases per day in China will exceed 270000 < p > it is worth noting that this prediction result is the lower limit of the number of cases. The article assumes that the population density and vaccination rate in China are the same as those in the reference country, and then makes the result prediction. In fact, when the article predicts, the overall vaccination rate in China is about 55.04%, and the average vaccination rate in the reference country is 59.70%. China's population density is 147 people / km2, including 661 people / km2 in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, and 185.94 people / km2 in the reference country. Moreover, the aging in eastern China is serious, the vaccination rate of the elderly is low, the infection rate and the proportion of severe cases will be higher < p > in addition, China has a large population, but the number of cases is small, and the natural immunization rate can be ignored, while the average confirmed cases in 7 days in the reference country is 44525.6 < p > therefore, the article points out that if China adopts the pandemic response strategy and community activity model of the reference country, the infection rate will be similar to those countries, but in reality, this rate should be much higher

novel coronavirus pneumonia has been reported in China for more than 30 overseas cases. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a novel coronavirus pneumonia. The article says that considering the grim reality of the global fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the possibility that the disease will be virtually impossible worldwide in the foreseeable future, mankind may have to temporarily coexist with the new crown pneumonia virus. For China, the risk of small and medium-sized epidemic caused by imported cases and the necessity of sustained and rapid suppression of domestic infection will continue for some time < p > "however, this reality does not mean that we can deviate from the existing covid zero strategy, which includes entry-exit quarantine measures and community non drug intervention (NPIS) Containment measures, instead of unreservedly accepting some "open" strategies, rely only on the hypothesis of successful vaccination induced group immunization advocated by some western countries, "the article wrote < p > finally, the paper points out that according to the famous epidemiological dynamic model and the granwal inequality in mathematics, when the virus reproduction number R & lt; 1, the epidemic decays exponentially, and once the breeding number is R & gt; 1. Epidemics may break out in the same exponential manner. "In the past year, many countries in the world have suffered losses due to jumping into the latter situation with too much confidence. China should not and cannot afford to be the next"
2023-03-22 10:04:47