Share the QR code < / P > < p > with friends and circles of friends through wechat scanning code < / P > < p > musk hopes that the insurance business accounts for 30% to 40% of Tesla's overall business value < / P > < p > text Liu Ding < / P > < p > Elon Musk recently said on twitter that Tesla (NASDAQ: tsla) hopes to launch its auto insurance products in Texas in October and may expand the business to New York in 2022 < p > musk said that Tesla plans to launch in October, which is a real UBI auto insurance designed according to real time insurance < p > UBI (usage based insurance) auto insurance is a new auto insurance product designed according to the service time, mileage, driver's habits and other information of the vehicle, and gives personalized pricing for different car owners < p > some insurance companies have launched UBI auto insurance before, but due to their limited data acquisition ability, they either install external equipment on the vehicle or require users to download tracking software, and the effect is not very good. Therefore, compared with traditional auto insurance, the loss ratio is not significantly reduced < p > musk said that Tesla plans to launch real UBI auto insurance next month because Tesla, as the leader of intelligent electric vehicles, can obtain owner data beyond the reach of insurance companies < p > at the financial report presentation meeting in the third quarter of 2020, musk proposed that insurance will become Tesla's main product, and the insurance business value will account for 30% to 40% of the vehicle business value < p > Tesla's profitability has always been its weakness. Tesla's profits increased significantly in 2020 and the first half of 2021, but 81% of the operating profit of RMB 13 billion in 2020 came from the sale of carbon credits; 47% of the operating profit of RMB 12.3 billion in the first half of 2021 comes from the sale of carbon credits < p > now, Tesla's Insurance chess is gradually falling. Can it become a sharp weapon for Tesla to win by surprise like carbon points < p > 01 < / P > < p > what is unique about Tesla auto insurance < / P > < p > the price of traditional auto insurance is calculated by the insurance company according to the pricing of models, the age and gender of owners. It can only set a unified price for groups, and can not identify the differences between different owners. On the one hand, it makes it difficult for insurance companies to reduce the compensation rate. On the other hand, it also means that car owners with many accidents take advantage, while car owners without accidents suffer losses < p > the profitability of insurance companies is usually measured by loss ratio. Loss ratio = loss expense / premium income * 100%. Insurance companies collect insurance fees and make compensation after an accident. Even if the premium pricing is very high, there are many orders and many premiums are received, it will be a disaster if all the premiums are paid out in the end < p > at present, the average profit margin of auto insurance business is not high. China Ping An insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. (601318. Sh, hereinafter referred to as China Ping An) has an operating profit margin of only about 1% in auto insurance business in 2020, and the operating profit margin of Qianjin insurance company (NYSE: PGR, hereinafter referred to as Qianjin insurance), the leader of UBI auto insurance business in the United States, is about 8% in 2020 < p > at the end of September, Tesla launched the "fully automatic driving 10.1 test version" and launched the insurance calculator < p > the auto insurance calculator has not been linked to the auto insurance cost. Tesla only uses it to screen owners participating in the 10.1 test version of fully automatic driving < p > but the Tesla auto insurance model can be seen through this auto insurance calculator < p > the sensor in Tesla's car collects the driver's behavior, including whether to leave the steering wheel with both hands, the times of sudden braking and sharp turns, whether to keep a safe distance from the car in front, etc < p > Tesla converts the collected data into a safety score between 0 and 100 < p > those with higher scores mean safer driving habits and less prone to accidents, so they get lower vehicle insurance prices < p > those with high scores pay less premium, but if there is no accident, Tesla insurance will be equivalent to net earning the premium; Those with low scores may be more prone to accidents, but they will also pay higher premiums, and Tesla insurance will not necessarily lose money < p > in addition, another major cost of traditional insurance companies is sales channel expenditure. Traditional insurance companies sell through manpower or other channels, so they need to pay huge costs. Tesla insurance sells directly to users through vehicles, with low costs < p > theoretically, Tesla insurance can reduce its loss ratio and expense ratio and make more money than similar insurance companies < p > the main business of China Ping An Property Insurance is auto insurance. In 2020, its loss ratio is 60.5% and the expense ratio is 38.6%; Qianjin insurance company (NYSE: PGR, hereinafter referred to as Qianjin insurance), the leading auto insurance company in the United States, is famous for carrying out UBI business, but its comprehensive cost rate in 2020 is still as high as 92.38% < p > in addition, insurance companies can also use premium investment to make profits, but this business requires an insurance business license. Tesla did not disclose whether it obtained an insurance license < p > Tesla acquired markel Corp in April 2019 and obtained the insurance brokerage license. Tesla insurance brokerage Co., Ltd. was incorporated in China in August 2020 < p > Tesla's obtaining insurance brokerage license means that it can not only do insurance sales business, but also cooperate with companies with insurance licenses to do marketing, collect premiums, underwriting, claim settlement, risk management, product development, actuarial pricing, assist in arranging reinsurance and other businesses, but can not manage the funds of policyholders < p > 02 < / P > < p > how much money can Tesla make selling auto insurance < p > what is the profit prospect of Tesla auto insurance business < p > in September 2020, musk said on twitter that Tesla could achieve an annual sales volume of 20 million vehicles by 2030 < p > eleven people from finance and economics estimated Tesla's annual sales volume according to three situations: pessimistic, neutral and optimistic. If the sales growth rate is assumed to decrease year by year from 2022 to 2030, and assuming pessimistic, neutral and optimistic conditions, the annual compound growth rates are 16%, 31% and 56% respectively < p > in the three cases, Tesla can achieve annual sales of 3.77 million, 11.52 million and 54.85 million respectively in 2030 < p > from 2017 to 2020, Tesla sold 100000, 246000, 368000 and 500000 vehicles respectively; The year-on-year growth rates were 35%, 138%, 50% and 36% respectively, and the annual compound growth rate was 60% < p > new energy vehicles are growing rapidly from scratch, showing a trend of replacing fuel vehicles. Automobile enterprises have released plans to completely switch to new energy vehicles < p > considering the scale of the overall automobile market, new energy vehicles are likely to achieve sustained growth for many years < p > according to the data of China's automobile industry yearbook, the total automobile sales in China's automobile market are growing from scratchIn the process, it has also created a record of long-term sustained growth. From 2.36 million vehicles in 2001 to 28.88 million vehicles in 2017, it has maintained a positive growth for 17 years, with an annual compound growth rate of 16% < p > eleven people of Finance and economics adopt neutral assumptions. If Tesla's sales maintain a compound annual growth rate of 31% before 2030, the annual sales volume can reach 11.52 million vehicles in 2030 < p > in 2020, the global sales volume of Volkswagen Group was 9.31 million and that of Toyota Motor was 9.52 million < p > according to the assumption of neutral situation, Tesla can achieve a global ownership of 60.46 million vehicles in 2030. If Tesla's insurance product coverage can reach 70% and the average annual premium per vehicle is 4800 yuan, the auto insurance business can achieve an income of 203.1 billion yuan < p > in addition, if Tesla's "fully automatic driving function" can reach 50% coverage in 2030, and assuming that the monthly subscription fee for each vehicle is 700 yuan, it can achieve a revenue of 253.9 billion yuan < p > in contrast, if Tesla assumes that the average sales price of each vehicle drops to 180000 yuan according to the neutral situation, Tesla can achieve a vehicle sales revenue of 2 trillion yuan in 2030 < p > in other words, the income from auto insurance can reach about 1 / 10 of the income from car sales, which is really a big cake < p > If Tesla's auto insurance model can be successfully promoted, the loss ratio of its auto insurance business is expected to be reduced to 50%, the expense ratio is 10%, and the operating profit margin can reach 40%, which is five times its current overall operating profit margin < p > 03 < / P > < p > it's not so easy to sell insurance < / P > < p > but this is only in theory. In fact, the auto insurance business is not easy to do < p > in 2017, Tesla launched its auto insurance plan to provide insurance services to customers in Australia, Hong Kong, the United States and other places by cooperating with insurance companies < p > in August 2019, Tesla announced to launch its own insurance products in California < p > however, according to Tesla website and relevant news reports, although these insurances belong to UBI auto insurance, the data collection mode is not different from similar products. The price is mainly set according to the customer's past accident records, age, purchase records, vehicle use and other information, rather than by collecting driver behavior data < p > these auto insurances have made little contribution to Tesla's profits. Tesla has never disclosed relevant business progress and profit data in its performance reports over the years < p > the biggest resistance seems to come from regulators < p > in September 2021, musk said on twitter that the regulatory policies of American insurance products are very complex, the approval process is also very slow, and the regulatory policies are different in each region < p > Tesla auto insurance has recently expanded in Texas. Its background is that Tesla will build a new super factory in Texas in July 2020, and Tesla's 2021 shareholders' meeting will be held in Texas < p > If Tesla wants to extend its insurance business to China, it will be more difficult < p > Tesla incorporated Tesla insurance brokerage Co., Ltd. in China in August 2020, but it still needs to apply to Chinese regulators for insurance brokerage business qualification. At present, no progress has been disclosed < p > If Tesla obtains a license through acquisition, it also needs to obtain the acquisition approval of CIRC < p > If Tesla designs products through cooperation with other insurance companies, the listing of Chinese insurance products also needs the approval of regulators < p > 04 < / P > < p > Tesla's short board < / P > < p > Tesla has been promoting the transformation of business model: it not only depends on the profit of selling models, but also depends on providing services to car owners < p > the service business is based on the number of Tesla models in the market and charges a monthly fee until the vehicles are scrapped, which is different from the simple car manufacturing business, which only relies on the sales volume of cars in the current year to realize one-time income < p > the service business has a higher gross profit margin than the car manufacturing business, and can also improve the profit-making efficiency of Tesla's automobile business. The service concept is an important means for Tesla to expand the gap with its competitors < p > Tesla's current P / E ratio is significantly higher than the average level of the automotive industry. At the end of 2020, musk said in an e-mail to employees, "if investors think their expectations will not happen, Tesla shares will be crushed immediately, just like custard under a sledgehammer" < p > in fact, Tesla's service business is not improving rapidly. If the status quo cannot be changed as soon as possible, investors' expectations will change < p > the profit margin of simply building cars is not high. In 2020 and the first half of 2021, the gross profit margin of Tesla automobile sales is 25% and 27%, which will be lower if the carbon score income is deducted < p > however, Tesla's autonomous driving business has not made significant performance contribution < p > the price of "fully automatic driving function" sold by Tesla on-board is $10000. If users pay for options, half of the price will be included in the current vehicle sales revenue and the other half will be included in the deferred revenue. It will not be included in the current operating revenue until Tesla launches services in the future < p > in the 2019 annual report, Tesla expects the revenue to be recognized in the next year to be 5 billion yuan, but only 2.2 billion yuan is actually recognized; In the 2020 annual report, it is expected to be RMB 7.5 billion, but only RMB 1 billion is confirmed in the 2021 semi annual report, which is insignificant compared with the total operating revenue of RMB 144.4 billion in the same period, and there is no significant change compared with 2019 and 2020. (Note 1) < p > musk said on Tesla's earnings conference call for the fourth quarter of 2020 that only 1-2% of car owners in China have the "fully automatic driving function" optional < p > in July 2021, Tesla launched the monthly payment service of "full automatic driving function". Compared with the one-time buyout of 66700 yuan, users can enjoy the service by paying 660 yuan or 1327 yuan per month < p > this reduces the threshold for users to obtain automatic driving service, and is intended to improve the coverage of automatic driving service < p > the lack of profitability is Tesla's short board for many years. Although it has improved significantly in recent years, the short board is still a short board < p > in 2020, regardless of the performance of carbon trading and car leasing, Tesla's car sales business achieved a gross profit of 31.8 billion yuan, while its R & D expenses and sales administration expenses totaled 30.2 billion yuan, which almost offset each other < p > of Tesla's operating profit of RMB 13 billion in 2020, RMB 10.5 billion is brought by carbon point trading, accounting for 81%. (Tesla will sell the carbon credits obtained from the production of new energy vehicles to enterprises with insufficient sales of new energy vehicles) < / P > < p > in the first half of 2021, of the 12.3 billion yuan of operating profit realized by Tesla, 5.8 billion yuan still came from carbon credits trading, accounting for 47% < p > note: the data in the text are from Tesla performance report, BYD announcement and Gaishi auto network. The sales data are all wholesale. The US dollar is converted to RMB at the end of the period exchange rate of 1:6.67 < p > < p > note 1: Tesla's deferred recognition revenue includes not only the revenue from autonomous driving business, but also the revenue from vehicle software upgrade, super charging pile charging service, Internet connection service, etc. the specific project amount is not disclosed, but from the perspective of its total amount, it obviously accounts for a low proportion of the total operating revenue and there is no significant growth, The overall confirmed amount also continued to be lower than expected < p > note 2: half of the revenue of "fully automatic driving function" is included in the deferred recognition revenue. By the end of 2020, the total deferred recognition Revenue of Tesla was $1.93 billion. Tesla deferred recognition revenue includes automatic driving business revenue and software upgrade revenue, without disclosing the specific project amount
2023-03-22 10:04:45