On July 20, the decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting long-term balanced population development (hereinafter referred to as the decision) was officially released. The original fertility restriction measures and punishment provisions such as social support fees will be further cleaned up, and new positive fertility support measures will be launched soon《 According to the decision, the implementation of the three child policy and supporting measures will help maintain an appropriate total population and labor force in the future, give better play to the basic, overall and strategic role of population factors, and provide effective human capital support and domestic demand support for high-quality development < p > "as for promoting the realization of moderate fertility level, I personally think the total fertility rate should be about 1.8. In this way, we can maintain an appropriate population size without causing drastic changes in the population structure. After the population reaches the peak, it will decline gently, so as to ensure that the problem of population structure is under control. " < p > the deputy director of the population, resources and Environment Committee of the CPPCC National Committee, Secretary of the Party group and executive vice president of the China Family Planning Association said after the release of the decision. The China Family Planning Association, established in 1980, is the bridge and link between the party and the government and the masses of childbearing age and family planning families Q: what is the purpose of the decision on optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting long-term balanced population development (hereinafter referred to as the decision) < p > Wang Peian: I think this can be understood from three aspects < p > on the one hand, it defines the overall goal and specific work goal of China's population development in the new historical period. The overall goal is to promote the long-term balanced development of the population, and the specific work goal is to promote the realization of an appropriate fertility level, promote people's all-round development and family harmony and happiness < p > another aspect is to clarify the orientation and major principles of China's future fertility policy, that is, the combination of national guidance and family independent fertility. State guidance means that a couple can have three children; Family independent childbearing means that after canceling the birth restriction measures, the family arranges its own childbearing behavior in a planned and responsible manner < p > the third aspect is to emphasize the construction of fertility support policy system, focusing on alleviating various practical difficulties faced by the masses < p > Q: before that, in fact, the three child fertility policy has aroused heated debate. Some people think that the three child policy is estimated to increase hundreds of thousands of children at most every year, and the effect will not be too great. On the contrary, if fertility is fully liberalized, the effect may be better. What do you think < p > Wang Peian: why implement the three child fertility policy instead of fully liberalizing it? I think it is mainly based on the following considerations < p > the implementation of the three child fertility policy first reflects the spirit of the combination of national guidance and family independent fertility. In the past, the implementation of "comprehensive two child" was family planning, and today the implementation of "three child policy" is also family planning. In the new era, we must continue to adhere to family planning and give new connotation to family planning < p > a couple can have three children. Specifically, it can meet the reproductive wishes of the vast majority of families, and families can scientifically and independently arrange the birth time, birth interval and birth quantity in a planned and responsible manner; In short, it also better reflects the basic national conditions of China's population development < p > secondly, the implementation of the three child fertility policy can consolidate the achievements of building a well-off society in an all-round way, achieve the adaptation of population to economy and society, the coordination of resources and environment, and achieve the goal of building a powerful socialist modern country < p > thirdly, the implementation of the three child fertility policy is conducive to promoting the realization of an appropriate fertility level and promoting people's all-round development and family harmony and happiness. Assuming that after the implementation of the policy, most families have 2 children, some families have 3 children and a small number of families have 1 child, the goal of appropriate fertility level will be achieved < p > Q: moderate fertility and balanced population development. What kind of fertility level is moderate? How to understand it < p > Wang Peian: it can be understood as follows: < / P > < p > one aspect refers to the balance of the population itself. Specifically, we should deal with the relationship between population quantity, quality, structure and distribution, especially the relationship between population scale and structure. Population size is a "double-edged sword", which has both denominator effect and molecular effect. It should be noted that our country has a population of 1.4 billion, which is the largest and most potential market in the world. At the same time, the large population also puts great pressure on economic development, public services, natural resources and ecological environment < p > it's not good to have a large population, but the less the better. If the fertility rate is too low, the scale drops too fast, and there is a lack of young population, the problem of aging will be prominent, weaken the vitality of economy and society and increase the burden of economy and society. Therefore, in the context of low fertility level, it is particularly important to deal with the relationship between population size and structure < p > another aspect is that the population should adapt to the level of economic and social development. In fact, the carrying capacity of China's economic and social development to the population is still in a tight balance. The population development between urban and rural areas and regions is still very unbalanced. The middle-income group is only more than 400 million, accounting for a relatively small proportion of the total population. On the one hand, some provinces lack talents, while on the other hand, some college students can't find jobs. Therefore, some people worry that the low fertility rate will cause the problem of labor shortage < p > in fact, in the next 30 to 50 years, China's total labor resources will still be relatively abundant and the human resource foundation will still be strong. According to international standards, there are 990 million working age people aged 15-64 in China, 950 million in 2030 and 820 million in 2050. At present, the total working age population of the western group of seven is about 480 million, but the total economic output is three times that of China, and the labor productivity is more than seven times that of China. It can be seen that China does not lack the number of labor force, but the labor force with high quality and high skills. The coexistence of oversupply and structural shortage of total labor force reflects the mismatch between population quality and the demand for industrial structure adjustment. In particular, there is a shortage of people in strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, big data, life and health and new materials. We should implement large-scale actions to improve vocational skills, constantly improve the overall quality and skills of the labor force, and turn a large population into a large country of human resources and human capital. At the same time, we should improve and optimize the employment structure, improve public services, further tap, develop and release the potential and advantages of human resources, form "brain bonus", "talent bonus" and "health bonus", and provide an inexhaustible driving force for high-quality economic and social development < p > to coordinate with the environment is to coordinate with the population < p > according to all
2023-03-22 10:04:19