Use wechat scan QR code < / P > < p > to share with friends and circle of friends < / P > < p > < / P > < p > February 8 news, global < a target = "_ blank" href=" https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87 "> chip < / a > shortage is impacting the supply chain, and there is no sign of easing. To some extent, this situation is likely to continue for another year. The reason is that the gap in chip manufacturing equipment is still large. < / P > < p > from Ford < a target = "_ blank" href=" https://news.163.com/news/search?keyword=%E6%B1%BD%E8%BD%A6 "> automobile < / a >, general motors and Toyota, many automobile manufacturers have reduced production due to the shortage of chips, and the automobile production lines of several companies around the world have been idle. < / P > < p > this problem has a far-reaching impact and also reflects the persistent imbalance in the chip industry. < / P > < p > the chip industry's misjudgment of market demand is only one aspect. Another problem is supply. There are different opinions in the industry on when to fill the chip demand gap. Some think it will take several months, while others think it will even take a year, depending on the manufacturing time of the chip. < / P > < p > this is the real bottleneck: the machine that makes chips. It may take three months to make a chip, but it will take longer to produce a chip manufacturing device. < / P > < p > a few chip device manufacturers account for 80% of the global market share. But for most of the past 20 years, there has been insufficient supply globally. Demand is a major indicator of the trend of the global chip equipment industry, which often fluctuates with the fluctuations of the industry cycle. It is likely to grow by 60% in the last month and then drop by 20% in the following month. < / P > < p > there's another factor: delivery. From 2005 to 2017, the so-called book to bill ratio of Japanese chip equipment manufacturers was 1.04 on average. This indicates that orders usually pile up faster than products are delivered. By 2015, the trend is still accelerating. < / P > < p > according to the data available from the North American Industry Association and other organizations, as the number of orders continued to exceed sales, chip device manufacturers around the world stopped disclosing the number of orders in 2017. < / P > < p > applied materials currently has 18% market share. In 2017, Gary E. Dickerson, the company's chief executive, pointed out in an analyst earnings call that orders in the first quarter exceeded an all-time high. Robert J. Halliday, then chief financial officer, said the company's order to ship ratio was 1.6 or 1.7. "It's a big number, so it's going to go down over time," he said, adding that the indicator will "remain positive for a while." By the end of 2017, the number had fallen to 1.11. Halidi said applied materials still had a "large" backlog of orders. < / P > < p > however, in 2018, sales of the entire chip device industry began to slow down. Great changes have taken place in the demand pattern of end users: chip manufacturers begin to focus on artificial intelligence, 5g and the Internet of things. The market share of common chip products like servers and personal computers is declining. But the problem is that chip manufacturers have no plans to deal with this situation, and their customers are adjusting faster than expected. < / P > < p > as Daniel J. durn, the current CFO of applied materials, announced in December 2020 at the Barclays global technology and Telecommunications Conference "When we enter a downturn, what we see is that our customers have reduced their capacity deployment," he said of the slowdown in sales in 2018, referring to chipmakers. He pointed out that this is the "first time" they have seen such "unified behavior". < / P > < p > for the chip equipment industry with a scale of more than 60 billion US dollars, it has always been difficult to assess the market demand. The rapid progress of chip design and technology, coupled with the impulse of consumers, often makes chip device manufacturers clumsy in the changing market. It's hard for them to keep up with the market demand. With the development of technology, all kinds of machines, from etching to making silicon wafers, will soon become obsolete. < / P > < p > a large part of the challenge lies in the correct management of production and inventory. Therefore, the proportion of capital expenditure and R & D expenditure in sales is often very unstable. The return on investment capital increased from 19.5% in 2017 to 29% the following year. < / P > < p > if you look at the current expectations of chip device manufacturers, you will see how big the market gap is. Analysts at Bernstein quoted industry data as saying that in 2020, chip production equipment shipments increased by 17% over the previous year. Tokyo electronics, Japan's largest supplier and leader, also raised its forecast for 2021. The company now expects sales of new equipment, based on orders received, to grow 23% from last year. Whether chipmakers can get their devices in time is another issue. (Chenchen) < / P > < p >